Possible scenario
Chinese Retaliation Cycle
20% Chance
Beijing interprets the U.S.-Japan pact as preparation for tighter containment and responds before or shortly after the summit. Retaliation is most likely to stay below crisis levels, focusing on licensing, antitrust probes, and procurement pressure rather than a full trade rupture.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.6%
- Industrials -1.1%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
- MP+1.9%
- NVDA-1.4%
- -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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