Possible scenario
Controls Escalate
20% Chance
The voluntary pact becomes the political bridge to tougher export and cloud-computing restrictions on Chinese entities. That increases policy risk for semiconductor, equipment and China-exposed technology firms, even if national-security contractors benefit.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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