Possible scenario
China Narrows Gap
25% Chance
China continues to improve model efficiency despite U.S. controls, weakening the strategic premise of a voluntary U.S.-only pact. Investors reassess whether U.S. hyperscalers and chipmakers can maintain premium growth assumptions without a binding international framework.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- AMD-1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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