Possible scenario
Social Pressure Escalates
20% Chance
If Salam’s warning is read as acknowledgment without remedy, depositor anger and public-sector frustration could intensify. The risk is not a full systemic shock for global markets, but it would worsen local bank confidence and complicate reform votes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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