Possible scenario
Regional Military Escalation
20% Chance
Riyadh responds with larger strikes in Yemen, while Houthi forces threaten additional energy and shipping targets. The central market issue shifts from one damaged pipeline to the risk of repeated attacks across Saudi export infrastructure and the Red Sea corridor.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.