Possible scenario
Prolonged Saudi Outage
27% Chance
Damage to the East-West crude system proves more serious than initial statements suggest, reducing Saudi flexibility to move oil away from Gulf routes. Brent rises further as traders price a temporary loss of Saudi export capacity and a higher probability of additional attacks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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