Possible scenario
Managed Diplomatic Freeze
38% Chance
Iran treats talks with Washington as politically impossible after repeated strikes, but stops short of a major new military move. The U.S., Oman, Qatar and European intermediaries keep crisis-management contacts open to prevent accidental escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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