Possible scenario
Backchannel Talks Resume
22% Chance
Iran uses the president's statement to improve leverage, then returns to indirect diplomacy once Oman, Qatar or the EU offers face-saving terms. A limited de-escalation path is credible because both Washington and Tehran want to avoid an uncontrolled regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.2%
- Consumer Services +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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