Possible scenario
Targeting campaign widens
30% Chance
Israel treats the hostage connection as proof that Hamas military commanders remain central to captivity decisions. The IDF and Shin Bet expand strikes against remaining brigade and battalion leaders, raising the chance of tactical gains but also civilian-casualty and regional-escalation risks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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