Possible scenario
Rescue intelligence emerges
20% Chance
Materials recovered from the slain brigade chief's network help Israel map past and possibly current hostage locations. The intelligence creates an opportunity for rescues or body recoveries, but any operation carries high risk to hostages and troops.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.