Possible scenario
Trump Doubles Down
30% Chance
Trump treats the poor polling as evidence that he should mobilize his core supporters rather than moderate. He leans harder into tariff nationalism, attacks critics inside the Republican Party and frames inflation as a fight against foreign producers and the Federal Reserve.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
- Technology -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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