Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Pricing
22% Chance
The poll increases the perceived odds of a Democratic midterm wave and divided government. Markets weigh lower odds of further unilateral tariff escalation against higher odds of investigations, oversight and possible sector-specific regulation.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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