Possible scenario
Orderly Debt Absorption
45% Chance
Global debt keeps rising in nominal terms, but lower inflation volatility and steady nominal GDP growth prevent a broad funding crisis. The U.S. Treasury, ECB-area governments and Japan continue to find buyers for large issuance, with pension funds, insurers and banks absorbing supply at moderately higher coupons.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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