Possible scenario
Energy Shock Broadens
25% Chance
The PPI report reinforces concerns that the Hormuz disruption and OPEC+ production freeze are creating a more persistent cost shock. Oil-sensitive assets become the center of the market reaction, with producers outperforming and airlines, logistics, and consumer discretionary names under pressure.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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