Possible scenario
Political Fight Escalates
20% Chance
The AIPAC threat becomes part of a broader U.S. political argument over antisemitism, Israel-Hamas war rhetoric, and domestic extremism. The issue is likely to produce hearings, statements, and campaign messaging rather than market-moving policy.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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