Possible scenario
Partisan Stalemate
45% Chance
Jack Smith's testimony gives both parties material for their preferred narratives but does not establish a clear finding of misconduct. The DOJ Office of Inspector General continues its review, and the Senate record becomes a political artifact rather than the basis for near-term legal action.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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