Possible scenario
Missteps Confirmed
25% Chance
The hearing and follow-up document production reveal procedural flaws in the Trump investigations, but the record stops short of proving a criminal abuse of power. The most likely consequences are internal DOJ discipline, revised special counsel guidance, and further congressional oversight.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.