Possible scenario
Soft Landing Holds
42% Chance
The most likely path is that extremely low initial claims confirm a still-resilient labor market rather than a renewed overheating cycle. With job openings lower than earlier in the expansion and layoffs subdued, investors treat the data as consistent with moderate growth and no near-term recession.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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