Possible scenario
Fed Repricing Dominates
28% Chance
A strong claims print can be read as limiting the Federal Reserve's room to ease policy, especially if inflation data remain sticky. In this scenario, rates markets react more than equities, and rate-sensitive sectors lag.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Utilities -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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