Possible scenario
Bond Rout Deepens
30% Chance
The selloff in sovereign bonds continues as investors demand higher term premia for inflation, deficits and central-bank balance-sheet risk. Banks remain under pressure because higher yields worsen unrealized securities losses and raise deposit and wholesale funding costs.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -4.8%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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