Possible scenario
Backstops Calm Markets
35% Chance
Authorities respond quickly to the bank-stock rout with coordinated communication, expanded repo operations, and assurances on liquidity. This is the most likely path because policymakers have recent experience containing yield-driven financial stress and would try to prevent a mark-to-market banking shock from becoming a funding crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +2.6%
- Technology +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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