Possible scenario
Sanctions Pressure Intensifies
18% Chance
The Trump administration responds to Tehran's denial by leaning harder on sanctions rather than making new concessions. Measures would likely focus on Iranian oil exports, shipping networks, insurers, and banks accused of facilitating payments.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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