Possible scenario
Backchannel Talks Continue
45% Chance
Iran's public rejection of Trump's claim is most likely tactical messaging rather than a full rupture. Tehran can deny direct negotiations while allowing Oman, Qatar, or UN intermediaries to continue shuttle diplomacy with a newly referenced six-member committee.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- UAL+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.