Possible scenario
Guardrails Limit Impact
18% Chance
FINMA's approval may come with conservative distribution rules, risk warnings, and custody standards that limit near-term flows. In this scenario, the headline remains positive for regulatory legitimacy but does not translate into a large expansion of retail demand.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- COIN-0.6%
- UBS-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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