Possible scenario
Talks Stall Publicly
30% Chance
Iran's denial of nuclear flexibility could harden positions if the US treats enrichment as the core condition for sanctions relief. The public messaging gap between reported concessions and Tehran's denial makes a short-term stall realistic.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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