Possible scenario
Deadline Slips Quietly
35% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is procedural drift: Washington does not accept Iran's terms by Tuesday, but neither side formally ends the channel. Qatar and Oman keep messages moving while Araghchi maintains public denial of any enrichment concession.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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