Possible scenario
Militant Plot Emerges
18% Chance
Investigators identify a credible militant connection, such as Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or a Houthi-linked facilitator, but the aircraft is not successfully hijacked. This would be a material geopolitical development because it targets the UAE-Israel air corridor, a visible symbol of the Abraham Accords.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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