U.S. Hardens Stance

Washington interprets Moscow's statement as a refusal to compromise and moves toward tougher sanctions or a narrower Ukraine bargain. This is less likely than continued talks, but the recent focus on Lukoil and postwar energy gives the U.S. leverage to use financial tools.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.