Possible scenario
Russia-Iran Deepening
25% Chance
Russia responds to U.S. pressure by more openly emphasizing its strategic partnership with Iran. The move would fit the pattern since 2022: drones, satellite support, and energy cooperation have become core parts of the relationship.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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