Possible scenario
Compartmentalized Diplomacy
45% Chance
Moscow keeps saying Iran is not a bargaining chip, but U.S.-Russia talks over Ukraine, postwar energy arrangements, and the Lukoil-related issue continue. This is the most likely path because Russia can preserve strategic ties with Tehran while still extracting limited economic concessions from Washington.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.