Possible scenario
Offshore Damage Risk
18% Chance
A less likely but important scenario is that the hurricane strengthens and tracks through the central or western Gulf, forcing broader shut-ins and creating damage-inspection risk. This would lift crude prices more sharply while weighing on operators with direct offshore exposure.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Tickers
- SHEL-1.7%
- CVX-1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.