Possible scenario
Brief Gulf Shut-Ins
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the first Atlantic hurricane causes precautionary evacuations and temporary production shut-ins, but avoids severe damage to major Gulf of Mexico platforms. Operators restart output once seas calm and inspections are completed, limiting market effects to a modest oil-risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Tickers
- SHEL-0.3%
- CVX-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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