Possible scenario
Gulf Energy Disruption
25% Chance
Iran or aligned forces target Gulf energy infrastructure, shipping lanes, or Saudi installations rather than only Israeli military targets. Oil markets react sharply because even temporary outages in the Gulf raise supply-risk premiums.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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