Possible scenario
Direct U.S. Engagement
18% Chance
The U.S. evacuation of embassy staff becomes a precursor to direct American military involvement, either defensive or retaliatory. This outcome would meaningfully raise the risk of a broader U.S.-Iran confrontation, though still short of a declared war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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