Possible scenario
Contained Missile Exchange
45% Chance
Iran proceeds with a retaliatory strike, but the attack is largely absorbed by Israeli, U.S., and Gulf air defenses. The exchange raises regional risk but stops short of a wider war or major oil-supply disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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