Possible scenario
Military Signaling Deepens
20% Chance
Both governments increase military signaling around the South Atlantic while avoiding direct conflict. This is a lower-probability but higher-impact path because the UK has recently run recapture drills and Argentina can stage naval or air exercises for domestic audiences.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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