Possible scenario
Federal Retaliation Escalates
30% Chance
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government responds with large-scale strikes on Tigray positions, drone launch sites, and seized airports. The war shifts toward a broader air-and-drone campaign, raising humanitarian and regional diplomatic risks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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