Possible scenario
Contained Capital Strike
40% Chance
The drone attack proves more symbolic than operational, with limited damage in Addis Ababa and no sustained rebel air campaign. The federal government tightens air defenses and communications controls while the front lines remain largely outside the capital.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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