Possible scenario
Omani Navigation Deal
38% Chance
Muscat extracts a temporary Iranian commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial navigation under neutral monitoring. This is the most likely path because Oman has longstanding channels to Tehran and Iran may want leverage without absorbing the full economic and military cost of a prolonged blockade.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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