Possible scenario
Negotiations Stall Again
22% Chance
Talks continue but fail to resolve Iran's demands on U.S. pressure, cargo searches, and legal guarantees. This outcome is plausible given Tehran's recent rejection of talks and its approval of cargo seizure plans.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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