Possible scenario
Managed Partial Reopening
30% Chance
Negotiations produce limited operational arrangements rather than a political settlement. Iran keeps some coercive leverage, while Oman, Gulf states, and ship insurers build a controlled process for selected transits.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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