Possible scenario
Limited Gaza Clashes
30% Chance
Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad attempts a symbolic Oct. 7 attack, but the action remains geographically limited to Gaza and nearby Israeli communities. Israel retaliates with targeted air and artillery strikes while avoiding a full resumption of large-scale ground operations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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