Possible scenario
Ceasefire Breaks Down
18% Chance
A higher-casualty attack convinces Israel that Hamas has materially violated the ceasefire, leading to broader airstrikes and renewed ground activity in parts of Gaza. The humanitarian and diplomatic situation deteriorates, though the fighting remains primarily Israel-Gaza rather than regional.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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