Possible scenario
Alert Deters Attacks
45% Chance
Israel's high-alert posture, intelligence warnings, and visible deployments prevent Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad from mounting a significant anniversary attack. The Gaza ceasefire remains strained but intact, with only localized security incidents.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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