Possible scenario
Enforcement Escalates
20% Chance
Authorities move from requests for voluntary repayments to asset freezes, arrests, and criminal probes tied to the September 19 crash. This would deepen concerns about rule of law and capital-market functioning in Turkey.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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