Possible scenario
Court Fight Delays
25% Chance
Profiting investors reject the request to return gains, arguing that the state cannot retroactively confiscate lawful market profits. The dispute moves into administrative and commercial courts, delaying recoveries and keeping Turkish financial assets under pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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