Possible scenario
Managed Rollout Holds
40% Chance
The White House and CMS convert the announced $64 billion into state-level rebate credits and Medicaid purchasing formulas without an immediate legal stoppage. Large drugmakers absorb lower U.S. net prices while trying to preserve revenue through higher European and other overseas list prices.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -1.4%
Tickers
- LLY-2.3%
- PFE-2.1%
- MRK-1.0%
- BMY-0.8%
- AMGN-0.7%
- -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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