Possible scenario
Plot Remains Credible
25% Chance
Despite the suspect's phone call and the absence of explosives, police conclude the petrol and vehicle activity still point to a real intent to attack RAF Fairford. The case remains serious because the base hosts US military assets and had already triggered heightened security measures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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