Possible scenario
Staffer Becomes Liability
30% Chance
The campaign may decide the staffer is politically costly regardless of the legal outcome. Because the incident follows several days of scrutiny over Muslim Brotherhood questions and alleged foreign funding, even a minor confrontation can become a campaign-management issue.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.