Possible scenario
Police Review Stalls
35% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the police report produces a limited local investigation rather than a major legal case. Campaign-trail confrontations often generate statements, witness interviews, and video review, but prosecutors may avoid charges unless the footage clearly shows criminal assault.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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